While Arsenal-Real Madrid and Inter-Bayern Munich matchups will get the lion’s share of attention in the Champions League quarterfinals, the under-the-radar fixture that has the most barn burner potential is the PSG-Aston Villa clash. Both teams are red hot coming into April; PSG hasn’t lost a game since November, and Aston Villa has won seven straight games in all competitions.
PSG is coming off an impressive win over Liverpool in the previous round. Even though they were only able to squeak by in a penalty shootout, the Paris side thoroughly dominated both legs. Luis Enrique’s side has arguably been the most dominant team in Europe so far this season, already clinching the Ligue 1 title with six weeks remaining and making it to the French Cup Finals. They have an excellent opportunity ahead of them to win a treble.
Standing in their way is their former manager Unai Emery. The talented Spanish coach’s 2016-18 tenure with PSG hasn’t gone according to plan, but he has bounced back since, establishing himself once again as one of the best single-game plan managers in the world. The King of the UEFA Europa League wants to take things one step further this time and conquer the Champions League, with a feisty Villa side.
Emery will certainly have revenge on his mind as he tries to take down his former team and fellow countryman Luis Enrique. Other than the flag on their passport, however, two managers don’t share much in common. Enrique is a ball-obsessed, offense-first manager while Emery is more than happy to allow his opponents to dominate possession. Styles make fights and these two teams couldn’t have more different styles, making this a fascinating matchup.
To Qualify:
PSG: -400
Aston Villa: +300
Moneyline:
PSG: -270
Draw: +410
Aston Villa: +650
Double Chance:
Aston Villa or Draw: +210
Total Goals:
Over 2.5: -198
Under 2.5: +160
Over 3.5: +130
Under 3.5: -158
Both Teams to Score:
Yes: -144
No: +114
Half-Time Result:
PSG: -135
Draw: +160
Aston Villa: +600
There have been many seasons in recent PSG history when the team spent significantly more money to construct flashier rosters. None of those attempts were enough to help them get over the Champions League hump. They were able to make the CL final once throughout their history but they have arguably never been closer than they are this season.
With one of the youngest rosters in the competition, PSG has a completely different identity than their previous iterations. Vitinha-Joao Neves-Fabian Ruiz trio in the midfield is one of the most complete midfield units in Europe. Up top, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola, and Ousmane Dembele are as unpredictable and devastating as they come. The speed, creation, and versatility that group has is unmatched in the Champions League.
Their two biggest handicaps are their lack of experience and inability to finish. This was apparent in the two legs against Liverpool. Despite creating significantly more chances than Liverpool across two games, they were on the brink of elimination due to the lack of precision. They play a positive, attractive brand of soccer, but can lack the killer instinct needed in high-stakes matchups like the Champions League quarterfinals.
Aston Villa is similarly inexperienced. However, they have a playing style that is generally better suited for tournaments. They will not put goals on the scoreboard with ease but they will make things difficult on the pitch. They will not leave any spaces to be exploited or beat themselves. They are athletic, intense, and have perfected their pressing plan. They are extremely comfortable without possession and that will come in handy against PSG in the first leg.
Emery has a long track record of causing all sorts of trouble against heavyweights. Few managers embody the underdog spirit quite like Emery. The possession may be one-sided, but the result will not be. Aston Villa has the schematic advantages to go back to England with the advantage.
Pick: Aston Villa or Draw: +210
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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