Series Preview: Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds

The Mariners clawed their way back to .500 with an encouraging 5-1 homestand against the Astros and Rangers, turning around what was a slow start to the season. Outside of that ugly extra-innings loss on Tuesday, the bats came through with a ton of timely hits during the homestand; three of their wins last week came after scoring the winning run in the eighth inning or later. I’m not sure what to make of this but nearly 40% of Seattle’s total runs scored this season have come in the seventh inning or later. With a bit of wind behind them, the M’s will embark on their first long road trip of the season with stops in Cincinnati, Toronto, and Boston.

The Reds are at a crucial point in their rebuilding cycle. Elly De La Cruz has quickly established himself as one of the most dynamic young stars in the game, and there’s plenty of young talent surrounding him on the roster, but the front office and ownership have failed to provide the ballclub with the resources necessary to really push them over the hump. They’re really banking on a ton of internal development from their youngsters and that puts a lot of pressure on them to produce right away. So far this year, the lineup hasn’t been great but it’s been the pitching that’s been the real surprise. Hunter Greene has been absolutely dominant — thankfully the M’s miss him this series — and they’ve allowed the third fewest runs in the NL.

Elly De La Cruz is the main attraction for the Reds. He was pretty raw when he made his debut in 2023, but he’s made significant strides to improve his approach at the plate while maintaining his dynamic and explosive style of play. Unfortunately, the rest of the lineup has been beset by a rash of early season injuries; Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson, and Austin Hays are all currently on the IL and Spencer Steer has been playing through a shoulder injury that has sapped him of much of his power. Their youngsters like Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Gavin Lux have really struggled to start the year too. Even though they’re sporting a +11 run differential, they’ve scored the fourth fewest runs in the NL.

Update: The Reds activated McLain, Hays, and Alexis Díaz off the IL on Tuesday, sending Marte back to Triple-A.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

Like Chris Sale, Nick Lodolo has one of the most extreme sidearm deliveries in baseball. It’s almost impossible for left-handed batters to pick up his release point because he’s essentially throwing from behind them. And because his release point is so low, all of his pitches move in really weird ways; all four of his pitches have tons of horizontal movement but not much vertical movement. Essentially, everything looks like a frisbee coming out of his hand. But that feature has given him some pretty extreme platoon splits during his career. Right-handed batters have absolutely pounded him and he’s increased the usage of his changeup this year in an attempt to keep them at bay.

Since returning from a stint in Japan in 2022, Nick Martinez has been miscast as a swingman and long reliever. His repertoire is deep, his underlying metrics have been solid, but both the Padres and Reds have opted to bounce him back and forth between the rotation and bullpen. To his credit, he’s excelled in that role. His best pitch is a fantastic changeup that earns tons of swings and misses. He also has five other pitches in his repertoire and great command of all of them, allowing him to keep opposing batters off balance and induce a ton of weak contact.

Brady Singer was traded to the Reds during the offseason after Kansas City opted to trade some of their surplus pitching for a hitter. He’s gotten off to a strong start in Cincinnati, posting a fantastic 3.18 ERA and 2.71 FIP along with the highest strikeout rate of his career through his first three starts with his new team. He’s introduced a cutter into his pitch mix which has essentially taken the place of his poor four-seam fastball. It also gives him a better third pitch to play off his sinker-slider combo. He always had a bit of a home run problem with the Royals so we’ll see how his new home ballpark treats him.

The Big Picture:

It’s amazing to see how different the standings look after a strong week this early in the season.