Tom Martello’s column on the state of the New Jersey governor’s race appears weekly on NJ.com and in the online newspaper. To read previous columns, click here.
The year was 1981. IBM introduced us to the personal computer. Indiana Jones donned his fedora for the first time.
And the field for the New Jersey governor’s race was filthy with high-profile Democrats, including two members of Congress, the mayors of Jersey City and Newark and a former state Senate president, all scrapping to win the primary
The eventual winner, Jim Florio, predicted the governor’s race would be a national referendum on the new Republican president’s sharp budget cuts.
Sound familiar?
This year’s cast of Dems running for governor also includes two members of Congress, the mayors of Jersey City and Newark and a former state Senate president — and, as an added bonus, the leader of the ever-powerful teachers union. All six believe they have a chance to win — and, here’s the crazy thing, nobody laughs when they say that.
So pay attention, voters. You haven’t had a choice like this in a very long time.
The reasons for this are varied, chief among them that the Democratic Party in New Jersey wasn’t always so, um … democratic. Candidates did run, and people did vote in June. But that was mostly for show. These things were usually settled by party bosses the year before Jersey’s gubernatorial election.
Once the party leaders chose their candidate, they could give them top billing on primary ballots in what was this exclusively Jersey thing called the county line. The preferred candidate would receive big-time treatment on the ballots like the bold credits a star like Robert De Niro gets at the beginning of a movie.
But all that changed last year when Andy Kim didn’t like that party leaders led by Gov. Phil Murphy were using this formula to back First Lady Tammy Murphy in the U.S. Senate race. He shocked Jersey’s political world by winning a court decision that ended the county line and led to a backlash against bosses.
Score one for the voters.
But how does all this play out this year?
Democrats tell me at this still-early stage that U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill is the slight favorite, but here’s my message: Every candidate has a plausible path forward.
That’s because while the large field brings back the traditional stuff — candidate forums, meet-and-greets at Jersey diners, campaign ads aiming at broad audiences — it also means you don’t need a huge vote total to take home the prize on June 10. You can use an unconventional strategy by riding a smaller but motivated bloc of supporters.
Everyone has a lane!
So in this Turnpike-and-Parkway driving state, we have candidates in different lanes. Here’s how they can ride them to victory, and my current thinking on their chances of winding up in the winner’s circle.
With a base in the state’s largest city, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is claiming the left lane by getting support from progressive groups and opponents of President Donald Trump’s immigration policies. Declaring “equity is our north star,” he is running to become Jersey’s first Black governor, and his campaign is making a huge appeal to Black voters. Democrats tell me this alone wouldn’t work in a one-on-one race but could succeed against five opponents.
New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller is also running in the left lane — and to be New Jersey’s first Black governor. But his chief target is, well, members of the teacher’s union he runs. The $35 million in union dues behind all his ads is nothing to sniff at. But will some of these teachers (and other Democratic voters) resent that he’s spending their dues this way?
Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop has been running the longest — and perhaps the loudest — race, piling up the biggest number of policy statements and taking aim not only at Trump but Democratic Party leaders. In addition to support in his city, he’s making a pitch to those who are angry at the system, which could play well this year. But that left lane is getting pretty crowded.
At the other end of the state, former state Senate President Steve Sweeney is hoping the people up north — and the progressives — split up enough of the vote so he can win. A moderate-to-conservative Democrat, Sweeney has some union backing, and says he made lots of friends as Senate president. But being tied to the Statehouse has a down-side, and Sweeney’s first campaign ad seems to acknowledge that by taking aim at “Trenton politicians” and Murphy’s plan to raise taxes by $1.2 billion.
It’s hard to escape U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer’s ads, which hit Trump and anger at Trenton with equal vigor by slamming tariffs and vowing to cut property taxes by 15%. He has consistently won big in a purple congressional district, and could squeeze enough votes by focusing on Bergen County, which has the highest number of Democrats in the state. He’ll try to erase early lack of voter enthusiasm by continuing to spend big on ads fueled by $10 million put into the campaign from his congressional super-PAC.
And then there’s U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a moderate candidate with credentials that play well in general elections. A former Navy helicopter pilot and a federal prosecutor, the mother of four is running to be New Jersey’s second female governor. Sherrill has the backing of many party leaders, which can be a double-edged sword. If last year’s Kim experience is an indication, this could have been a kiss of death among angry Democrats. But with six in the mix, you can win even if 70% don’t want you to. And the still-potent party leaders know how to get people to the polls.
So who wins? My crystal ball is fuzzy, but right now I’d say the odds favor Sherrill, with Baraka not far behind. Then you have Gottheimer and Fulop, with Spiller and Sweeney having the most to prove. Of course, anything can happen in the home stretch.
Six candidates. Six weeks remaining. Who doesn’t love a free-for-all?
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Tom Martello may be reached at [email protected].
