Much of the Emmy conversation around Adolescence‘s acting chances has centered around Stephen Graham and Owen Cooper, as they play the two key characters in the harrowing project. However, Gold Derby is now predicting that five total performers will receive nominations this year.
The four-episode crime drama is created and written by Graham and Jack Thorne, and stars Graham as Eddie Miller, the father of Cooper’s 13-year-old Jamie Miller, who is arrested for allegedly stabbing a classmate to death. Each episode is directed by Philip Barantini and filmed in a single take as viewers learn more about Jamie’s crime from the viewpoints of the police, his psychiatrist, and his family.
Also expected to nab Emmy nominations for the cast are Ashley Walters as Detective Inspector Luke Bascombe, Erin Doherty as child psychologist Briony Ariston, and Christine Tremarco as Jamie’s mother and Eddie’s wife, Manda Miller. Cooper and Doherty are both now predicted to win their respective supporting races. Watch Gold Derby’s video interviews with Graham & Cooper, and with Doherty.
Recent Emmy contenders that received five or more acting nominations and won Best Limited Series include Beef (2023), The White Lotus Season 1 (2022), Watchmen (2020), The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (2018), Big Little Lies Season 1 (2017), and The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story (2016). So, Adolescence would be in impressive company indeed if our odds prove true.
As of this writing, Adolescence is the third most-watched original TV series in Netflix’s history, behind only Wednesday Season 1 and Stranger Things 4. The program has acquired 130 million global views (and counting), and has helped foster a worldwide discussion around toxic masculinity, misogyny, and violence against women.
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Below are our current Emmy predictions in 16 top categories, updated Wednesday. You can see how the races have evolved over time by looking back at our previous Emmy snapshots on March 19, March 28, April 7, and April 15.
Gold Derby’s Emmy odds are based on the combined forecasts of more than 2,300 people (and counting), including experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the Emmy predictions by exploring all of our charts and graphs, and be sure to sound off in the TV forums.
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Adolescence — 7/4
2. The Penguin — 10/3
3. Dying for Sex — 7/1
4. Disclaimer — 8/1
5. Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story — 13/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Black Mirror, Say Nothing, Presumed Innocent, La Maquina, Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist, Zero Day
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Rebel Ridge — 23/10
2. Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy — 59/20
3. Out of My Mind — 6/1
4. Mountainhead — 19/2
5. Am I OK? — 19/2
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
The Gorge, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat, The Parenting, G20, Another Simple Favor, Swiped
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Cristin Milioti (The Penguin) — 11/5
2. Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) — 51/20
3. Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer) — 5/1
4. Renée Zellweger (Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy) — 23/2
5. Kaitlyn Dever (Apple Cider Vinegar) — 13/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ellen Pompeo (Good American Family), Lola Petticrew (Say Nothing), Julianne Moore (Sirens), Uzo Aduba (The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat), Meghann Fahy (Sirens), Phoebe-Rae Taylor (Out of My Mind)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Colin Farrell (The Penguin) — 7/4
2. Stephen Graham (Adolescence) — 18/5
3. Kevin Kline (Disclaimer) — 6/1
4. Cooper Koch (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 13/2
5. Brian Tyree Henry (Dope Thief) — 13/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Robert De Niro (Zero Day), Nicholas Alexander Chavez (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story), Jake Gyllenhaal (Presumed Innocent), Paul Giamatti (Black Mirror), Aaron Pierre (Rebel Ridge), Gael Garcia Bernal (La Maquina)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Erin Doherty (Adolescence) — 9/2
2. Deirdre O’Connell (The Penguin) — 5/1
3. Jenny Slate (Dying for Sex) — 6/1
4. Lesley Manville (Disclaimer) — 13/2
5. Sissy Spacek (Dying for Sex) — 7/1
6. Chloe Sevigny (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 13/1
7. Christine Tremarco (Adolescence) — 15/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ruth Negga (Presumed Innocent), Angela Bassett (Zero Day), Leila George (Disclaimer), Dakota Fanning (The Perfect Couple), Edie Falco (The Parenting), Betty Gilpin (Three Women)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Owen Cooper (Adolescence) — 19/5
2. Javier Bardem (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 9/2
3. Liev Schreiber (The Perfect Couple) — 15/2
4. Rhenzy Feliz (The Penguin) — 11/1
5. Ashley Walters (Adolescence) — 14/1
6. Peter Sarsgaard (Presumed Innocent) — 14/1
7. Rob Delaney (Dying for Sex) — 16/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Kodi Smit-McPhee (Disclaimer), Jesse Plemons (Zero Day), Jay Duplass (Dying for Sex), Brian Cox (The Parenting), Diego Luna (La Maquina), Clancy Brown (The Penguin)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Severance — 9/2
2. The Last of Us — 11/2
3. The White Lotus — 13/2
4. The Pitt — 7/1
5. Slow Horses — 8/1
6. The Diplomat — 19/2
7. Squid Game — 16/1
8. Andor — 18/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Paradise, The Handmaid’s Tale, House of the Dragon, The Day of the Jackal, Bad Sisters, Yellowjackets
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Kathy Bates (Matlock) — 71/20
2. Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us) — 4/1
3. Keri Russell (The Diplomat) — 9/2
4. Britt Lower (Severance) — 5/1
5. Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale) — 19/2
6. Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets) — 13/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Keira Knightley (Black Doves), Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters), Helen Mirren (1923), Lashana Lynch (The Day of the Jackal), Carrie Preston (Elsbeth), Myha’la Herrold (Industry)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Adam Scott (Severance) — 7/2
2. Noah Wyle (The Pitt) — 4/1
3. Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) — 5/1
4. Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us) — 5/1
5. Sterling K. Brown (Paradise) — 13/2
6. Eddie Redmayne (The Day of the Jackal) — 18/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game), Jon Hamm (Your Friends and Neighbors), Diego Luna (Andor), Jeff Bridges (The Old Man), Mark Rylance (Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light), Billy Bob Thornton (Landman)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Carrie Coon (The White Lotus) — 4/1
2. Parker Posey (The White Lotus) — 9/2
3. Allison Janney (The Diplomat) — 6/1
4. Kaitlyn Dever (The Last of Us) — 17/2
5. Aimee Lou Wood (The White Lotus) — 19/2
6. Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus) — 19/2
7. Patricia Arquette (Severance) — 13/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Leslie Bibb (The White Lotus), Isabela Merced (The Last of Us), Julianne Nicholson (Paradise), Dichen Lachman (Severance), Kristin Scott Thomas (Slow Horses), Katherine LaNasa (The Pitt)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. John Turturro (Severance) — 9/2
2. Walton Goggins (The White Lotus) — 9/2
3. Tramell Tillman (Severance) — 13/2
4. Jack Lowden (Slow Horses) — 15/2
5. Jason Isaacs (The White Lotus) — 17/2
6. Sam Rockwell (The White Lotus) — 19/2
7. Jeffrey Wright (The Last of Us) — 16/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Patrick Schwarzenegger (The White Lotus), Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses), Patrick Ball (The Pitt), Zach Cherry (Severance), Hugo Weaving (Slow Horses), James Marsden (Paradise)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hacks — 4/1
2. The Bear — 13/2
3. The Studio — 7/1
4. Only Murders in the Building — 7/1
5. Abbott Elementary — 8/1
6. Shrinking — 21/2
7. Nobody Wants This — 23/2
8. What We Do in the Shadows — 18/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
The Four Seasons, A Man on the Inside, The Residence, Poker Face, St. Denis Medical, Agatha All Along
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Jean Smart (Hacks) — 3/1
2. Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) — 9/2
3. Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) — 5/1
4. Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) — 7/1
5. Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face) — 12/1
6. Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building) — 12/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Uzo Aduba (The Residence), Tina Fey (The Four Seasons), Kathryn Hahn (Agatha All Along), Bridget Everett (Somebody Somewhere), Charlotte Gainsbourg (Étoile), Natasia Demetriou (What We Do in the Shadows)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) — 18/5
2. Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) — 39/10
3. Seth Rogen (The Studio) — 11/2
4. Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) — 6/1
5. Jason Segel (Shrinking) — 9/1
6. Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building) — 9/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ted Danson (A Man on the Inside), Steve Carell (The Four Seasons), Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows), David Alan Grier (St. Denis Medical), Luke Kirby (Étoile), Nathan Lane (Mid-Century Modern)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) — 31/10
2. Liza Cólon-Zayas (The Bear) — 9/2
3. Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) — 13/2
4. Jessica Williams (Shrinking) — 7/1
5. Catherine O’Hara (The Studio) — 17/2
6. Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) — 9/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building), Meg Stalter (Hacks), Patti LuPone (Agatha All Along), Kathryn Hahn (The Studio), Linda Lavin (Mid-Century Modern), Susan Kelechi Watson (The Residence)
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear) — 7/2
2. Harrison Ford (Shrinking) — 9/2
3. Paul W. Downs (Hacks) — 9/2
4. Michael Urie (Shrinking) — 7/1
5. Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary) — 8/1
6. Ike Barinholtz (The Studio) — 10/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live), Colman Domingo (The Four Seasons), Brett Goldstein (Shrinking), Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live), Ted McGinley (Shrinking), Giancarlo Esposito (The Residence)
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