Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day’s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Sunday
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It’s a good day to stream pitchers with only seven of the 30 probable starters rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues. Topping the list is San Francisco Giants RHP Jordan Hicks. While there may be health concerns, when Hicks is on the hill, he can be dominant as he was in his opener, fanning six through six innings in Houston. Sunday brings a home date with a strikeout-prone Seattle Mariners lineup.
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Tampa Bay Rays RHP Drew Rasmussen has a career 2.91 ERA, but he’s also exceeded 76 innings just once in a season. His second start this season is in Arlington against a potentially potent Texas Rangers lineup, but when healthy, Rasmussen deserves to be in a fantasy lineup.
Pitchers to avoid on Sunday
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Sunday lineup decisions in head-to-head leagues are often driven by needs and not analysis. That said, of the seven heavily rostered starters, two are in a precarious spot. Miami Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara faces the Atlanta Braves in Truist Park. The Braves broke a seven-game losing streak in the series opener on Friday, scoring 10 runs. They likely won’t put up double digits on Alcantara, but it’s a risky matchup for the righty.
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Philadelphia Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez is garnering some early Cy Young buzz. While it’s warranted, so is taking the safe route and benching the lefty for his home date with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Sunday’s best matchups for pitchers
Detroit Tigers pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: A+ | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.36 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox pitchers vs. Tigers hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: A+ | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.48 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Blue Jays hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: A+ | Temperature: A+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.63 ERA in this matchup.
Sunday’s worst matchups for pitchers
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.85 ERA in this matchup.
Cardinals pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A+ | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.84 ERA in this matchup.
Miami Marlins pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D+ | Wind: A | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.80 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Sunday
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For the first time in recent memory every Colorado Rockies batter is available in more than 50% of ESPN leagues. The first two games of their series with the Athletics were played in chilly conditions, but the temperature should be pleasant on Sunday. The visitors are giving the ball to RHP Joey Estes and his low 16.4% career strikeout rate. Brenton Doyle is the day’s best hitting streamer, with Michael Toglia, Hunter Goodman, Ezequiel Tovar and all the Rockies in play.
Hitters to avoid on Sunday
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Always play your studs is an age-old fantasy axiom. It’s usually true, since the chances are slim that a fantasy manager has better options. On a slate with a plethora of lesser starting pitchers, odds are that there are more favorable matchups available than Phillies right-handers Trea Turner, Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos facing Dodgers RHP Tyler Glasnow.
Sunday’s best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: F | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .356 wOBA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Cardinals pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: A | Framing: C | Temperature: F | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .338 wOBA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .268 wOBA in this matchup.
Sunday’s worst matchups for hitters
Chicago Cubs LHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: A | Framing: B | Temperature: F | Wind: F | Home
The average hitter would post a .267 wOBA in this matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies RHB vs. Dodgers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .267 wOBA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .268 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Sunday’s top home run prop bets
Leody Taveras | OVER 0.5 HR (+1100)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.08 EV
One reason to bet this: Globe Life Field has the sixth-lowest average fence height.
Jose Altuve | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.90 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Mike Trout | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.55 EV
One reason to bet this: Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Mike Trout has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 114.5 mph, placing in the 93rd percentile.
Sunday’s top pitcher prop bets
Jackson Jobe | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.72 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 4 stadium in the league for suppressing strikeouts is Comerica Park.
Bowden Francis | OVER 4.5 K (-110)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.83 EV
One reason to bet this: Projected catcher Alejandro Kirk profiles as a good pitch framer.
Will Warren | UNDER 4.5 K (+115)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.34 EV
One reason to bet this: The Pittsburgh Pirates have six bats in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Will Warren.
