Game thread XXVIII – Astros at Royals

While everyone was giving up on the Royals thanks to a tough road trip that saw them go 2-8, the Royals have now gone 9-2 in the 11 home games surrounding the road trip and find themselves 10-4 at home overall this season. Today would be an excellent day to add a sixth straight win overall. They’ve already guaranteed a winning homestand by taking last night’s game, but punishing the Astros while they’re down by winning at least one of the two remaining games against them would help the Royals further recover from the debacle of the week and a half before. There’s no time better than today to achieve that goal.

If they could win both games, they could achieve their first perfect homestand since May of last year and earn a seven-game winning streak for the first time since the same period. But that starts with winning today and evening things out from the six-game losing streak they endured last week.

If the Royals want to win today, they’re going to have a tough row to hoe as they’ll face off against one of the premier left-handed pitchers in the American League, Framber Valdez. Valdez is coming off the best season of his career, by some measures, which saw him finish seventh in MVP voting. This season hasn’t gone exactly the way he planned with a 4.50 ERA in his first five games, but there’s plenty of time for him to turn things around. Still, to this point in the season, he’s alternated good starts with awful ones. If he could continue that pattern for at least one more game, that would benefit the Royals, as he’s due for a bad one next.

In his career, he’s faced the Royals seven times, including five starts. He has gone 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA in those games. Royals fans, however, may remember his start against KC from late last year when he outdueled Seth Lugo for seven innings. The Royals tied it in the ninth with a two-run home run off the bat of Paul DeJong, but ultimately lost the game in the bottom of the ninth when James McArthur couldn’t keep it tied in one of his last appearances for the Royals in 2024.

Michael Wacha will get the start for the Royals. After signing a contract extension in the offseason to avoid opting out, he hasn’t pitched quite up to the same standard in 2025. His strikeouts are down, his walks and his ERA are up. After earning 14 Quality Starts in 29 games last season, Wacha has yet to even finish the sixth inning in 2025. For multiple starts he’s looked dominant until he hits a wall in the sixth inning. This seems likely to be tied to the infamous third-time-through-the-order penalty; he has a 0.00 ERA the second time through the order, but a 19.64 ERA when facing the lineup a third time. So Q and the bullpen had best be ready to go early in this one.

Lineups

Framber Valdez has reverse splits, but that didn’t stop the Royals from benching all but one of their left-handed hitters. Even Vinnie Pasquantino, the remaining southpaw, has been moved lower in the lineup. Cavan Biggio, Michael Massey, and Kyle Isbel will find themselves available to pinch-hit in this one. Valdez may have reverse splits, but this table, constructed by Jacob Milham, shows that versus the pitches Valdez primarily throws, the Royals’ left-handers simply can’t handle them.

Yes, some Royals still don’t do well against this pitch mix, but all those unlabeled blue dots in the bottom left corner are the guys who won’t be starting today – except for the one on the far right which represents MJ Melendez, thanks to his dinger against Max Fried and lack of other at-bats against lefties.

You’ll note that Jose Altuve is playing off of his natural position of second base in left field to allow the team to insert Mauricio Dubón and his .507 OPS into the lineup. The Royals aren’t the only ones who make seemingly bizarre lineup decisions.