The Atlanta Hawks will resume their Southeast Division rivalry with the Orlando Magic on Tuesday with an Eastern Conference playoff berth on the line. The two teams square off for their fifth meeting of the season in the NBA Play-in Tournament at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The winner of Tuesday’s game will advance to the first round of the NBA playoffs at Boston on Sunday. The loser will face the winner of Wednesday’s Miami-Chicago Play-In game for the opportunity to earn the No. 8 seed in the East and take on the Cavaliers in the first round.
Atlanta is participating in the pre-playoff tourney for the fourth consecutive season. Last year, they were eliminated as the 10th seed. The host Magic are appearing in the Play-In Tournament for the first time.
Hawks vs. Magic predictions and best bets
Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
The two teams split the four games in the regular season, but Sunday’s win by the Hawks came in a meaningless finale in which both teams rested starters.
Realistically, Orlando won two of the three games that counted most, including last Tuesday’s 119-112 victory that helped the Magic earn home court for this Play-In matchup.
The other two regular season games were decided by six points. This should be a tightly contested matchup between familiar opponents with a playoff trip on the line. The two teams’ knowledge of each other and the stakes should keep this game closer, even if Orlando emerges as the team to advance.
Before the season finale loss to Atlanta, the Magic had won five consecutive games and nine of their last 11. The Hawks won their final three games to wrap up the second Play-In berth in the Eastern Conference.
While this is not an official playoff game, it will certainly be played in a postseason atmosphere. That means we can legitimately expect more of a defensive matchup. Plus, Orlando is one of the top defensive teams in the league. As noted by NBA.com, in their final 14 games, the Magic ranked first in the league in Defensive Efficiency.
The Hawks ranked third in the NBA in points in the paint during the regular season (55.2). Atlanta usually plays at a frenetic pace, but if the tempo slows down in this particular game, it can produce points more methodically if needed.
We know it’s going to be a physical game; they’re kind of known for being a physical team,” Trae Young said via Field Level Media. “They are one of the best, if not the best, defensive teams in the league.”
While the Magic will rely heavily on Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Caldwell-Pope will be a key performer. Orlando finished last in the NBA in three-pointers made and three-point percentage. It leans on Caldwell-Pope in that regard to supplement the top scorers.
Last Tuesday, “KCP” made three of six three-point attempts and finished with 15 points. The Hawks ranked 28th in points per game and 26th in three-pointers made vs. shooting guards during the regular season, according to FantasyPros.
Hawks vs. Magic moneyline odds analysis
Why Orlando could win as the favorite
Best odds: -220 at bet365.
Orlando has won 11 of its last 21 home games vs. the Hawks. The Magic allowed 11.84 second-chance points per game, which ranked first in the NBA.
Orlando allowed 45.68 points in the paint per game, which ranked third. They registered 5.95 blocks per game, which also led the league.
On Feb. 10 vs. the Hawks, Wagner scored a season-high 37 points. Banchero logged two games vs. Atlanta in which he scored 30-plus points and collected 10 rebounds.
Why Atlanta could win as the underdog
Best odds: +185 at Caesars Sportsbook
During the regular season, the Hawks set a franchise record with 29.6 assists per game. Trae Young led the NBA in total assists (880) and assists per game (11.6), becoming the first Hawks player to pace the league in assists per game.
The superstar guard became only the fourth player in league history to average at least 24.0 points and 11.0 assists in a season. Young scored 38 points vs. Orlando on Feb. 20.
Dyson Daniels became only the fifth player since 1974 to average at least 14.0 points (14.1), 5.0 rebounds (5.9), 4.0 assists (4.4) and 3.0 steals (3.01) per game. His scoring average from the previous season increased by 8.3 points per game.
Daniels led the league with 229 steals, the most in a season since 1996. He was the first player since 1995 to register 200-plus steals and 50-plus blocks in a season. Zaccharie Risacher posted the highest Offensive Rating of any rookie in the Eastern Conference.
