The absence of a Goldman Sachs linchpin to hold all 21 counties together and keep the party from
imploding into drama, intrigue, hurt feelings, and regional fracturing, proved new terrain for 2025 Democrats now embroiled in a legitimate – and fast accelerating – gubernatorial primary contest.
What they have now is no Jon Corzine or Phil Murphy beaming at the top of the ticket – and a ton of drama, intrigue, hurt feelings, and regional fracturing to go along with Andy Kim’s 2024 demolition of the Democratic Party line, which for 20 years kept everyone’s passion bottled up behind that candidate sufficiently rich to pitch himself as a common (and progressive!) man.
What does it mean exactly?
It means a contest.
Imagine that.
And everyone’s in a cold sweat.
When 2005’s Goldman Sachs candidate (Corzine) first ran for governor, no one ever doubted he would
win the primary, just as when 2017’s Goldman offspring (Murphy) first sought the nomination, no one believed anyone else had a chance.
2025 is different.
Not only does everyone (or almost everyone) believe that he or she can win the Democratic Primary, but each of the six candidates (or five – more on that in a minute) has a believing base of operations that could conceivably provide enough of a launch pad in a five-person race to get its candidate elected. Each has a pathway to 21% (or 18%).
Does anyone have a clear edge?
Let’s run it down.
U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-11) continues to occupy frontrunner status based on the backing of key county organizations, namely Essex (her home county), Hudson, Passaic, and perhaps critically, Middlesex. These pieces form the core of Sherrill’s support, critical in a Democratic Primary based on sizable Democratic Party registration advantages. The candidate’s backing in Essex – on paper the strongest Democratic Party county in the state based on raw numbers – loses power in part because of the candidacy of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka. Sherrill’s support in Middlesex offsets the loss of the line in Bergen. Moreover, the potential for organizational overlap with the base of Speaker Craig Coughlin of Woodbridge gives Sherrill another key opportunity. Now, again, the organization line lacks the strength of the past, but a year removed from their humiliation at the hands of Kim’s upstart U.S. Senate candidate after the corruption meltdown of Bob Menendez, the organizations themselves face a do or die proposition. Without the line will they wither up and blow away, or will bosses like Essex County Democratic Chair LeRoy Jones and Middlesex County Democratic Chair Kevin McCabe, see a chance to provide evidence for why their operations still matter? This is the critical organizational question in this race. Both Jones and McCabe have motivation. Neither wants to see an organizational resurgence of South Jersey. A Sherrill victory would affix an exclamation point on the alliance of their counties and maintain the post Essex-South Jersey power share forged in 2017 behind Murphy. Now, as Bill Spadea reminded InsiderNJ earlier this week, there is “Murphy fatigue.” Enough to overthrow Middlesex and Essex? Maybe. But probably not in a six-person race. One more thing to consider, the congresswoman sniped the endorsement of the Laborers, a boon on the organizing end of the campaign equation, and has the backing of high-octane vote-generator state Senator Brian Stack of North Hudson County.
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka was already the best progressive issues speaker in the contest. His consolidation of key progressive groups last week now gives him a credible ground game. It makes sense that he has the backing of U.S. Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, who in 2014 scored the 12th District Congressional seat with a victory over county rival state Senator Linda Greenstein. Watson Coleman had public sector labor groups pounding doors to drive her progressive message, while Greenstein – long defined by general, not primary, elections – relied heavily on TV. “My hometown turned out,” Coleman said when she won, which Baraka, of course, will need, not only in his home city of Newark but in other targeted urban and ex-urban areas. InsiderNJ observed real passion from Baraka supporters at a campaign event in New Brunswick earlier this week. It’s real. Enough to penetrate? Possibly. Of course, just as Sherrill’s key enemies continue to bad mouth her campaign as the second coming of John Glenn’s 1984 presidential candidacy, Baraka naysayers say adamantly, “He can’t win a general.” One more interesting wrinkle about Baraka. Camden Mayor Victor Carstarphen backs him, an organizational plus, which energizes the progressive base of the city down there for Fulop. Elton Custis, who lost to Carstarphen in 2021 with 23% of the vote, continues to avidly promote the Jersey City mayor.
Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop fights most obviously for the progressive base, along with Baraka and – arguably to a somewhat lesser degree, Sherrill. Like Baraka, Fulop projects a youth-oriented progressive agenda. Like Kim before him, he has a convincing, let’s-roll-the-sleeves-up-and-throw-the-old-bums-out style, highlighted in campaign ads by his longtime opposition to the now disgraced Menendez. Fulop, in fact courted the establishment in 2017, only to leave portions of it high and dry – and seething – when he suddenly withdrew from the contest and backed Murphy. Shorn of those aging personalities, he has perhaps worked harder than any single candidate in this contest to build his own duplicate conventional operation, complete with down-ballot candidates in strategically key areas to help drive support. Just as Steve Sweeney and Josh Gottheimer continue to battle for the adult-in-the-room lane, Fulop must contend with fellow urban Mayor Baraka for the progressive Bernie Sanders-AOC soul of the New Jersey Democratic Party. Does he have a path? He does. All he has to do is get those 2024 Andy Kim voters to back him in 2025.
The financially well-connected U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-5) roared out of the gate earliest with the most detail-oriented affordability attack plan. But in a crowded race, will the swing-district-defined Gottheimer – who owns the organization-backing of his home county, Bergen – be able capture the imagination of Democratic Primary voters? His biggest obstacle is arguably Steve Sweeney (see below), who is likewise running mostly on the economy and affordability, and with neither budging, they appear to mutually nurse the hope that the other four candidates in the race will simply cannibalize one another. Gottheimer’s allies – and they are convinced of his unique political intelligence – point to his ability to galvanize pockets of support in places like Ocean and Passaic counties, in addition to sniping pieces of Essex and Middlesex to add to the considerably important Bergen. In addition, he has money to chuck with abandon down the stretch of the contest.
Much to the chagrin of his public sector and progressive detractors, former State Senate President Steve Sweeney has a pathway. First, he has South Jersey. Second, as an ironworker by trade with strong labor ties, he has the ability to drive the Building Trades’ 150,000 members to the polls. These are voters wary of a Democratic Party that many of them say abandoned their “all we do is build” priorities. Sweeney has a unique command of their issues. But unlike a Corzine or a Murphy who could essentially enter the public arena as a progressive voter’s dream candidate, Sweeney has a record, and it’s complex. His presence in the contest motivates Building Trades labor for his own efforts, but also conceivably galvanizes public sector labor against him. Still, in a crowded field, with the North cut up and Baraka exceeding expectations as a candidate in Sherrill’s backyard, Sweeney – the candidate who has most vociferously hammered Sherrill – has a shot based on his strong combination of organizing and messaging. In addition, Sweeney this week showed more campaign nimbleness, going after a key primary demographic by specifically highlighting a senior affordability plan.
New Jersey Education Association (NJEA) President Sean Spiller has a base, as the leader of one of the state’s strongest labor organizations. But his candidacy causes a lot of people to scratch their heads over the viability of a public sector labor leader springboarding out of his current leadership position into Drumthwacket. In the earliest days of the contest, Spiller hit mailboxes hard with colorful campaign pieces. In the end, the former Montclair Mayor may complicate matters in Essex County, as the third Democratic Party contender from the prodigious North Jersey voter stronghold. The organizing strength of his union, too, could put him in position to negotiate for a cabinet position, especially if he exceeds expectations on June 10th, or succeeds in helping to kneecap one candidate in favor of the primary winner, who seeks to unite a primary-fractured party with political rewards.
Anyway, it’s volatile…
