Our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League weekend.
Brentford vs Chelsea, Sunday 2pm
Nicolas Jackson has been missed by Chelsea.
Jackson showed against Tottenham that he offers Chelsea such a great base to play off, from his powerful running in behind to holding up the ball to bring the likes of Cole Palmer into the game.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League match between Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur
His influence stacks up both on the eye test and what the data is telling us. Without him for nine games, Chelsea created just an expected goals per 90 figure of 1.10 and scored just 1.25 goals per 90. It was a soft run of fixtures, too having played Leicester, Southampton and FC Copenhagen twice.
When Jackson plays, Chelsea average 1.9 goals per game and take 1.9 points per game. A huge spike.
Jackson has scored in the last two meetings with the Bees and he can lead the charge by netting another in an away win at 100/30 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Fulham vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Liverpool need a maximum of 13 points from their remaining eight games to bag the Premier League title.
Arne Slot is playing the game very nicely – he has Liverpool very hard to beat. Nothing flashy. Just very professional.
That is enough at this stage of the season such is the position they find themselves in.
Slot’s team remain on a very impressive unbeaten run in the league. It’s now 26 games since they last tasted defeat – it’s the club’s second-longest unbeaten Premier League run and their fourth-longest unbeaten league run in the club’s entire history. Liverpool are also the only team in English football unbeaten away from home this season. An away win looks good at 4/5 with Sky Bet.
Jamie Carragher once remarked that Diogo Jota is Liverpool’s best Premier League finisher – and I totally agree with him. Yes, even better than Mohamed Salah.
Jota’s numbers back that theory up. The Portugal forward averages a goal every 142 minutes in the Premier League for Liverpool – that’s a better record than Michael Owen (143) and Robbie Fowler (159).
Jota scored the winner in midweek again and I’m always interested in backing Jota to score when he’s looking this sharp and busy in front of goal. Him to score in a Liverpool win comes in at 100/30.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Sunday 6th April 1:00pm
Tottenham vs Southampton, Sunday 2pm
With Ange-ball now a thing of the past at Tottenham despite him still being in a job, the prices surrounding goals in Spurs matches are too skewed towards past data.
Yes, this Tottenham team have been full of goals in the Ange Postecoglou era – for example, between his first game in charge and January 31 this year, the total match average for goals was coming in at 3.6.
However, in the last eight games, their matches have only averaged 2.38 goals per 90 and their attacking play has become very stale.
With Tottenham’s season on the line in their next fixture against Frankfurt in the Europa League, it’s easy to foresee them just being in job-done mode for this one. All this makes the under 3.5 goals play at 8/11 with Sky Bet very attractive.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Under 3.5 goals (8/11 with Sky Bet)
Manchester United vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Based on Manchester United’s clear issues in attack, they are impossible to back here at a price like 9/4 with Sky Bet, especially from what we’ve seen from Manchester City in the last three halves of football.
In 135 minutes against Bournemouth and Leicester, they’ve faced just one shot and total expected goals of 0.02. There was a clear sign of balance in the Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol partnership with Nico O’Reilly looking composed on the left.
It wouldn’t surprise me if City win this derby without conceding.
However, Omar Marmoush to score anytime at 6/5 with Sky Bet is the better punting option.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Manchester City’s win against Leicester in the Premier League
He’s on a run of scoring in his last three games now and has already got six goals in total in his last six starts. And I just love how positive he is with the ball, always looking forward and loves to get shots away – he fired a whopping nine against Leicester.
I’m assuming he’s going to be on penalties too with Erling Haaland out which I think adds a little extra edge to that anytime price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Leicester vs Newcastle, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Leicester posted an expected goals tally of 0.02 in the defeat at Manchester City. An extraordinary achievement.
It’s the lowest by any top-flight team all season – beating Newcastle’s 0.04 against Crystal Palace.
Leicester have now lost 15 of their last 17 games in all competitions and are on a run of seven successive Premier League defeats without scoring. That’s the first time that’s happened in the history of the football club.
I’m not sure playing at home is going to help them here – things could get ugly.
Newcastle should be capable of scoring multiple goals and the way to back some value in that outcome is to put your faith in Jacob Murphy to assist at 9/4 with Sky Bet. He has eight assists in his last 20 starts for the Toon and has developed excellent chemistry with Alexander Isak.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-4
Monday 7th April 6:30pm
Kick off 8:00pm
Jones Knows’ best bet…
- 1pt treble on: Ipswich to win, Aston Villa to win & under 3.5 goals in Tottenham vs Southampton (8/1 with Sky Bet) ❌
