Series Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

Rain beats down on the roof of your Saab 900 SE, sluicing down the windshield faster than your old wipers can smear them away.

Thunk, thunk, thunk, squeak
Thunk, thunk, thunk, squeak
Thunk, thunk, thunk, squeak

The two-way road is empty, the storm clouds darkening further as the sun sinks down behind them. Every so often, the front wheel drive causes the little hatchback to swivel across the road, bumping the middle divider and sending a reverberating groan through the overpacked interior.

Thunk, thunk, thunk, squeak
Thunk, thunk, thunk, squeak
Thunk, thunk, thunk, squeak
Brrrrrrrrrrrmmmmmmmmnm

A billboard rises up in a nearby field as you near the end of the town limits, kindly illuminated by matching floodlights on right and left.

“Are you feeling bereft? At a loss? As though no good can come from anything in the future?”

You sit up a bit, peering forward suspiciously at the enlarged Times New Roman.

Thunk, thunk, thunk, squeak
Thunk, thunk, thunk, squeak
Thunk, thunk, thunk, squeak
Brrrrrrrrrrrmmmmmmmmnm

A second billboard appears through the gloom.

“If so, try: Playing the Astros!!”

You slump back in your seat and subconsciously press down on the gas pedal.

Thunk, thunk, thunk, squeak

For the first time in what feels like a lifetime, the AL West is not the Astros’ to lose. Houston is coming off of a funky off-season that saw them lose Justin Verlander and Alex Bregman in free agency (to the Giants and Red Sox, respectively), and opted to deal Kyle Tucker to the Cubs for Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith – all of whom we’ll be seeing this series, for better or for worse. Their primary splash, beyond the Cubs blockbuster, was signing first baseman Christian Walker to a three year, $60 million deal. Can’t think of any other team who would’ve benefited from that bat, at that position, for such a relatively reasonable deal. It’s early days yet, but the ‘Stros have scuffled in their start, with the bats falling noticeably quiet. They too were swept by the Giants, if that offers any balm (it does not).

So, there’s no Tucker or Bregman, which is nice. They’re also playing José Altuve in the outfield, which is perhaps not so nice to Altuve but entertaining for the rest of us. He was forced out onto the grass so that the Astros could fit … *checks notes* Brendan Rodgers into their lineup? Despite his reputation, Altuve hasn’t been a great defender at second for a while now, but choosing to move him in favor of some detritus from the Rockies sure is a choice.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

Hayden Wesneski was one of the pieces the Cubs sent over in the Tucker trade and he’s a fascinating project for the Astros development team. He’s spent parts of the last three years bouncing between Chicago’s rotation and bullpen, but hasn’t really been able to put everything together. He’s got a nasty sweeper that provides tons of swings-and-misses, but he has trouble getting to that pitch to put away batters because the rest of his repertoire is pretty lackluster. His biggest issue is a lack of command; he fills the strike zone with his heaters but isn’t careful enough with their placement to get away with it. Opposing batters are happy to just sit on his fastballs and crush them rather than take their chances with his breaking ball.

Framber Valdez turned in another fantastic season last year, earning a seventh place finish in the Cy Young voting, his third straight season with down ballot votes. It’s actually quite impressive how consistent he’s been during this stretch; his excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio has barely budged, his groundball rate is continually excellent, and he hasn’t run into any bad batted ball luck or home run issues. It all starts with his curveball. That breaking ball is one of the best in baseball and continues to give opposing batters fits. Valdez has dabbled with a few versions of his repertoire that included a cutter or four-seamer over the years, but he’s settled on the core trio of pitches that have worked so well for him throughout his career. That kind of consistency makes Valdez a bit underrated, but make no mistake, he’s still one of the best pitchers in the American League.

Hunter Brown was an absolute mess to start last year — his ERA was over nine through his first six starts — but he experimented with adding a sinker to his pitch mix in a May start against the Mariners and that one pitch unlocked his entire repertoire. Over his final 24 starts, he ran a 2.51 ERA and a 3.25 FIP and finally put everything together. His arsenal is deep, featuring six different pitches, but all of his secondary pitches break away from right-handed batters. The sinker gave him a pitch that he could use on the inner half of the plate to keep them honest against his breaking balls. That one pitch helped all of his others to play up, and once he figured out how to utilize his entire arsenal, he thrived.

The Big Picture:

[Juicy, wet fart noise goes here]