Widespread Severe Weather Threat, Including Tornadoes, Expected In Midwest, Plains

Severe Storms Expected In Upper Midwest Monday

A multi day severe threat will continue through April’s final days. A rash of severe thunderstorms targeting the Plains, Midwest, South and part of the East will bring multiple tornadoes, destructive straight-line winds, large hail and flash flooding are all potential concerns.

Several tornadoes were reported across New Mexico Saturday evening, including one near Roswell. Also, golf ball to tennis ball sized hail was reported in Pecos, Texas.

Here’s a look at where the storms are right now, including any watches or warnings that are issued.

Forecast Timing, Threats

-Overnight into early Monday: The storm system responsible for this multi day episode of severe weather could fire up its first storms in the High Plains – anywhere from the Dakotas to western Texas. The most likely spot for severe thunderstorms is in central Nebraska. Severe weather should be very isolated, but any supercell storms that do form could pack large hail, high winds and some tornado threat.

-Monday-Monday Night: A more significant severe weather threat will develop on Monday as the storm pushes farther east, especially in the afternoon and evening. Severe weather is possible from Minnesota and Wisconsin to Texas, with a corridor from southern Minnesota to Iowa, northern Missouri and eastern Kansas having the greatest likelihood. That includes cities like Minneapolis; Des Moines, Iowa; and Kansas City.

Tornadoes, some possibly strong (EF2 or greater damage), as well as large hail and damaging winds, are all possible threats.

Storms may start out as supercells Monday afternoon before transitioning to a squall line with embedded tornadoes Monday evening.

-Tuesday: A broad area from the eastern Great Lakes to the Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys, Oklahoma and northern Texas could see severe weather. Wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat might develop across these areas, including from Dallas-Fort Worth to St. Louis, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. The potential for flash flooding from heavy rain is also in play.

-Wednesday: The frontal system causing this round of severe weather may get stuck over the southern Plains by midweek. This may lead to more severe thunderstorms in parts of north Texas into the Arklatex on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

What To Do

-First: You should know where you’ll go in case a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued, whether you live in a home, apartment, manufactured home, are at work or driving.

-Next: You need to have not just one, but a few ways of receiving watches and warnings, including NOAA Weather Radio, an alert from your smartphone, and local media sources such as radio or TV.

-Don’t Count On This: An outdoor siren is not a reliable way to warn you inside your home, or wake you at night. Tornado sirens are meant to warn those outdoors to seek shelter. You may live too far away from the nearest siren to hear it.

See this link for additional information on these tips, plus others that will help plan for severe weather now and in the future.

A Classic Springtime Setup

-A pronounced southward jet stream plunge will arrive in the Plains and Midwest from the West by early week.

-Those strong upper-level winds in tandem with its associated surface low-pressure system will team up with plenty of warm, humid air from the Gulf.

-This mix of ingredients is common in the spring over these regions and usually results in the formation of thunderstorms that produce severe weather of various intensities.

Chris Dolce has been a senior digital meteorologist with weather.com for nearly 15 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.